The US administration’s increasing reliance on the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to shield domestic fuel prices from oil price spikes triggered by geopolitical crises is providing short-term price relief while eroding the country’s longer-term energy security buffer.
As the world’s largest crude oil producer has increasingly turned to its emergency stockpile to limit the impact of global supply shocks on oil and domestic fuel prices, US strategic crude inventories have fallen to 286.6 million barrels, their lowest level since 1982.
According to data compiled by Anadolu from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the first major drawdown in Washington’s strategic stocks came after the Russia-Ukraine war.
The US carried out the largest emergency release in the SPR’s history to cushion the impact of global supply disruptions and contain rising fuel prices.
As a result, reserves fell from around 580 million barrels when the Russia-Ukraine war began in February 2022 to 372 million barrels by the end of that year, a decline of approximately 36%. Stocks fell further to 354.7 million barrels by the end of 2023.
– Efforts to rebuild strategic reserves derailed by new crisis
Seeking to restore its emergency buffer, Washington began replenishing the SPR, with stocks recovering to 393.6 million barrels at the end of 2024 and 413.5 million barrels at the end of 2025.
The recovery ended after the US-Iran war began on Feb. 28 and disrupted global oil flows. Washington subsequently authorized the release of 172 million barrels from the SPR as part of an IEA plan to make 400 million barrels of emergency stocks available to ease supply shortages caused by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
According to EIA data, US strategic stocks fell from around 415 million barrels in February to 304.8 million barrels at the end of July and 286.6 million barrels as of Aug. 28, a decline of about 30% in six months.
The SPR has now roughly halved from its level at the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, falling to its lowest since 1982.
While the reserve allows Washington to quickly cushion supply shocks and price spikes, repeated drawdowns have sharply reduced its emergency buffer. Compared with roughly one month of US petroleum consumption in early 2022, current SPR stocks are equivalent to only around two weeks of consumption.
– Trump turns to Venezuelan oil to replenish SPR
The historic decline in US reserves has raised questions over how quickly Washington can rebuild its depleted strategic buffer, bringing President Donald Trump’s plans for Venezuelan oil into focus.
Trump said on Aug. 30 that the US would use Venezuelan crude to replenish the SPR under a new agreement that grants Washington 100-year concessions for 17 oil fields containing more than 65 billion barrels of proven reserves and the right to purchase 20% of production at cost.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright also said during a visit to Caracas that Venezuelan oil production could more than double in the coming years with new investment, while international energy companies pledged to expand projects in the country.
The moves signal Washington’s efforts to both rebuild its strategic reserves and secure Venezuelan crude as a longer-term supply source. However, years of underinvestment mean significantly raising Venezuela’s current output of around 1.2 million barrels per day would require substantial investment and infrastructure development.
– Shrinking SPR narrows Washington’s room for maneuver
Julien Mathonniere, oil markets economist at London-based Energy Intelligence Group, said the SPR, designed primarily as an emergency buffer, has helped cushion two major supply shocks over the past four years and prevent sharper price spikes.
However, he stressed that such relief comes at a cost.
“The US is paying for stability now with reduced future flexibility,” Mathonniere said.
Rebuilding the reserve is therefore critical to restoring the country’s ability to respond to future crises, he added.
Mathonniere noted that current conditions in the Strait of Hormuz are keeping oil prices elevated, making it harder to replenish the SPR at favorable prices. A meaningful refill could therefore be delayed until the second or third quarter of 2027, depending on an improvement in geopolitical conditions in the Middle East.
– Venezuelan oil may not offer quick fix
Mathonniere described Trump’s plan to use Venezuelan crude to replenish the SPR as an attempt to address US “strategic vulnerability,” but cautioned that access to Venezuela’s vast reserves does not guarantee a rapid refill.
“The real question remains: how much Venezuelan crude can actually reach the SPR, how quickly, and at what effective cost after years of underinvestment in Venezuela’s oil sector?” he said.
Mathonniere added that depleted strategic stocks could marginally constrain US foreign policy flexibility but said broader geopolitical considerations, rather than SPR levels, would remain the main drivers of Washington’s policies toward Venezuela and Iran.
