The planned natural gas pipeline between Türkiye and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) could evolve beyond an energy security project into a strategic export corridor for Eastern Mediterranean gas, potentially strengthening Türkiye’s position as a regional gas hub, analysts say.
Türkiye and the TRNC signed a memorandum of understanding on natural gas supplies on July 10, after which Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced that work had begun on a subsea pipeline linking the two.
Bayraktar said the planned pipeline would stretch 101 kilometers (63 miles), including 97 kilometers offshore and 4 kilometers onshore, connecting Anamur on Türkiye’s Mediterranean coast with Teknecik in the TRNC.
The project envisages two 22-inch pipelines designed to operate in both directions, allowing natural gas to flow from Türkiye to the TRNC while also enabling any future gas production from the island to be transported to Türkiye and potentially onward to Europe.
Analysts said the proposed capacity appears to exceed the TRNC’s foreseeable domestic demand, suggesting the project could eventually serve broader regional gas trade.
Julian Bowden, senior visiting research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), told Anadolu that the combined capacity of the two pipelines would be significantly greater than the territory’s likely gas requirements.
“Given the size of the lines and that they are to be bi-directional, then clearly what is contemplated here is exports of gas to Türkiye from Cyprus,” he said.
He added that the bi-directional design pointed to ambitions extending beyond supplying the TRNC alone.
Bowden cautioned, however, that the project remains at an early stage and that planning, construction and commercial negotiations mean it is unlikely to become operational before 2030.
– Egypt remains Israel’s only practical export market
Bowden said the Eastern Mediterranean gas market is currently characterized by mutual dependence between Israel and Egypt, with Israel relying on Egypt as virtually its only export destination while Egypt depends on Israeli gas to help meet domestic demand.
“Israel is surplus, Egypt is deficit. It is therefore ‘natural’ that one export opportunity for Israel, and one import opportunity for Egypt, is for the flow Israel to Egypt. The problem for Israel is that it has no export alternative to Egypt. Therefore it is dependent on Egypt to take the gas.”
He noted that Egypt is no longer exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) because of its domestic supply shortfall and has instead become an LNG importer.
“Because Egypt is now deficit gas, there are no LNG exports from Egypt. So Israel cannot access the Egyptian LNG plants because Egypt needs both pipeline imports from Israel and LNG imports from the international market. Cyprus gas is now being pulled to Egypt as that is the region’s deficit market. Some Cyprus gas might go to the LNG plants, but how that might be done commercially is not clear.”
Bowden said a pipeline connection to Türkiye could significantly reshape regional market dynamics.
“If a pipeline connection to Türkiye could be done, then it would be a transformational piece of infrastructure for the region. It would create a lot of export optionality for Israel and for Cyprus. It would probably stimulate more exploration.”
– Political hurdles remain
Sohbet Karbuz, director of oil and gas at the Mediterranean Organization for Energy and Climate, said the proposed route through the TRNC and Türkiye could offer geographical and economic advantages over existing export options.
“If new discoveries are made in the future, for example offshore Lebanon, those resources could theoretically also be transported to Europe through the same system.”
Karbuz said such a corridor could eventually reduce Europe’s dependence on spot LNG markets, although current commercial arrangements make that scenario unlikely in the near term.
He said political obstacles remain the biggest barrier to establishing a regional gas corridor, with the unresolved Cyprus issue continuing to limit broader cooperation.
If the parties were able to reach an agreement and establish a joint operating framework, a more comprehensive mechanism for transporting Eastern Mediterranean gas to Europe could emerge, he said.
Karbuz added that exploration activity across the region remains strong, with licensing rounds and negotiations with international energy companies continuing.
“In the short to medium term, market fundamentals rather than infrastructure will continue to determine regional gas flows.”
“Egypt’s continuing supply deficit keeps it as the main buyer of Eastern Mediterranean gas. All export infrastructure currently under construction or recently completed is designed to deliver Israeli and southern Cyprus gas to Egypt. Until Egypt resolves its domestic supply shortage, it will remain the principal customer for the region’s gas,” he concluded.
