Poll points to Israeli political deadlock ahead of next elections

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition and the opposition would both fall short of the parliamentary majority needed to form a government if elections were held today, according to a poll published Friday.

The survey, released by Israeli daily Maariv, projected Netanyahu’s coalition would win 50 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while the Jewish opposition would secure 59 seats and Arab parties would win 11.

A governing coalition in Israel requires the support of at least 61 lawmakers. Most Jewish opposition leaders have ruled out relying on Arab parties to form a government, while Arab parties have set conditions for supporting any future coalition.

The findings suggest neither camp would be able to form a government on its own, raising the prospect of another political deadlock.

Netanyahu’s Likud party was projected to win 21 seats, followed by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit with eight seats.

The ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism were each forecast to win eight seats, while Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party was projected to secure five.

Among opposition parties, former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party was projected to emerge as the largest with 20 seats, followed by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s Together party with 19.

Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu and Yair Golan’s Democrats party were each projected to win 10 seats.

Among Arab parties, the Hadash-Ta’al alliance was projected to secure six seats, while Mansour Abbas’ United Arab List was forecast to win five.

Maariv said the latest poll showed no change for Netanyahu’s coalition at 50 seats. The Jewish opposition lost one seat to 59, while Arab parties gained one seat to reach 11.

The survey also found that 74% of respondents said they would definitely vote in the next Knesset election, while 17% said they were likely to vote. Three percent said they did not intend to vote, and 6% remained undecided.

Some 62% said they believed it was unlikely that parties from both political camps would form a unity government after the election, including 35% who said it was unlikely and 27% who said it was impossible. Fourteen percent said such a coalition had a good chance of being formed.

According to Maariv, the survey was conducted by the private Lazar Research Institute among a random sample of 606 Israelis and had a margin of error of 4%.

The current Knesset’s term is due to expire in October, when Israel is scheduled to hold its next general election.