- Seven key swing states in this election are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
- Average of national polls shows Harris with a slim lead over Trump, but factoring in the margin of error leaves them in a virtual draw
HOUSTON, United States
With the US elections a few days away, all eyes around the world are focused on whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump will take over the White House.
Americans choose a president and vice president once every four years, and this year’s election has Democratic candidates Harris and her vice presidential running mate, Tim Walz, up against Republican Trump and his pick, JD Vance.
Third-party candidates may also be listed on the ballot, but they usually do not account for a large portion of the vote.
Voters will also elect 435 members of the House of Representatives, 33 Senators and 13 governors in different states and territories.
In addition to voters turning out on election day, there is also a system of early voting, which is taking place in most US states right now leading up to Nov. 5.
Voters in some states may also cast absentee ballots, with other states allowing certified voting by mail.
Electoral College
What makes the American way of electing a president unique is that winning the popular vote – the majority of the total votes cast – does not necessarily mean victory.
This has happened five times in US history, most recently in 2016, when Trump prevailed despite Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes.
In 2000, Republican George W. Bush won against then-Vice President Al Gore, despite Gore taking the popular vote by more than a half-million votes.
The framers of the US Constitution implemented a system known as the Electoral College, which is a 538-member body of designated electors composed of US congressional members and two senators from each state.
Whoever wins the popular vote of each state gets all the electoral votes for that state – a winner-take-all scenario.
The exceptions to that rule are the states of Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are divided up based on congressional district and statewide election results.
To become president, a candidate needs a majority of the 538 electoral votes, with the magic number being 270.
Larger states have more electoral votes, such as California (54), Texas (40), Florida (30) and New York (28), while places such as Alaska, Delaware, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming have 3 votes each.
Washington DC, which does not have voting representation in Congress, also has 3 electoral votes.
While California and New York are traditionally Democratic, or blue states, Texas and Florida are predominantly Republican, or red states, so Democrats and Republicans alike are usually assured of those electoral votes in their strongholds.
Swing state battleground
The determining factor that usually tips the scales in the presidential battle comes down to what are known as swing states or battleground states.
They are sometimes called purple states because they of their even mix of blue and red.
In this race, Trump and Harris are targeting seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The latest numbers from polling tracker 538, which calculates the average of all major polls in the US, show Harris and Trump are virtually tied, running neck-and-neck in those battleground states.
Trump leads Harris in Arizona (50% – 49%), Georgia (48.5% – 47%), North Carolina (48.3% – 47.1%) and Pennsylvania (47.9% – 47.6%).
Harris leads Trump in Michigan (47.7% – 47%), Nevada (47.4% – 47.1%) and Wisconsin (47.9% – 47.7%).
With a margin of error of anywhere between 3% and 5% in the varying polls, Harris and Trump are basically in a dead heat, making the presidential race a literal toss-up until every single vote is counted.
The average of the national presidential polls shows Harris leading Trump by a margin of 48.1% – 46.4%, but add in the margin of error, and again, both candidates are in a virtual draw.
That makes voter turnout especially important because every vote will most assuredly make a difference in this election.
Trump lost the state of Georgia to President Joe Biden in 2020 by just under 12,000 votes. He also lost the state of Wisconsin by about 10,500 votes, which is why both candidates are stumping hard and targeting the swing states in their final push to the finish line.
Once the final votes are counted after Nov. 5 to determine the winner, electors will meet on Dec. 17 to cast their ballots for president.
Congress will then formally count and certify the final overall vote at a special session on Jan. 6, officially declaring the winner of the 2024 presidential election.
