- Mexico’s homicide numbers have fallen sharply during the World Cup, but many residents say they still do not feel safer
- Officials credit tighter security coordination, while experts warn preliminary data may not show the full picture
- The tournament has brought heavy policing and record-low homicide figures, but high-profile killings keep doubts alive
For Lucy Rivera, a resident of Juarez, a city in the Mexican state of Nuevo Leon, security in her area feels exactly the same as always.
As she sits on a bench in Monterrey’s center, waiting for one of Mexico’s games in the 2026 World Cup to begin on the big screen, she notices the heavy police presence.
“In my area, you don’t see a presence like this,” said the 29-year-old, while watching officers deployed as part of the country’s World Cup security strategy. “You don’t notice any difference at all.”
As Mexico co-hosts the tournament, alongside Canada and the US, the country has recorded its lowest daily homicide counts in decades. On June 11, during the inaugural match between Mexico and South Africa, the nation recorded 30 homicides, according to data from the Security and Citizen Protection Ministry (SSPC). On June 16, the number dropped to a record low of 27.
Monterrey resident Mario Elizondo acknowledges recent investments in security technology and personnel, but notes that the reinforcement seen during the World Cup is largely concentrated in tourist hubs. “The city should be a priority without needing an event like this,” he said.
On June 16, Security Cabinet spokesman Omar Garcia Harfuch reported a 46% decrease in the national daily average of intentional homicides, compared to 2024. The reduction represents 39 fewer homicides per day, with the average dropping from 86.9 homicides in September 2024 to 47.3 in May.
Security numbers
Mexico’s strategy, espoused by the administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum, relies on a combination of localized intelligence and close coordination between federal and state agencies.
The trend is particularly visible in World Cup host cities. In Guadalajara, Roberto Alarcon Estrada, Jalisco state’s general strategic security coordinator, told Anadolu that by the end of May, the state had recorded a 60.2% decrease from its all-time high in July 2024.
“This equates to 115 fewer homicides per month,” said Alarcon.
Nuevo Leon has seen a similar trend. State authorities report homicides decreasing 45% thisn year compared to the same period in 2025.
Yet, there remains a gap between the record-low numbers and public perception. For residents like Rivera, data does not always match daily experience.
While acknowledging that the level of violence now does not compare to the peak organized crime in the state in 2010-2012, she shrugs, describing current levels as simply the “new norm” in the outskirts of Monterrey.
Fanny Mendoza, a resident of San Nicolas roughly 10 kilometers (6 miles) from Monterrey, said that because homicides are not that common, robberies have become normalized and are no longer viewed as a severe threat. “Occasionally, you hear that someone was killed, but it isn’t that common,” she said.
Rivera noted that many incidents never make the news. Instead, word of them spreads through neighborhood chat groups.
“Sometimes you only hear about it through the neighborhood chats,” said the 29-year-old architect. “My mom works in a beauty salon, so it’s common for people to talk, like, ‘Hey, did you hear about the murder on that street?’”
The Juarez municipality saw a 50% decrease in homicides, dropping year on year to 12 reported cases in January-March, according to official data.
Jose Andres Sumano Rodriguez, a researcher at El Colegio de la Frontera, warned that while official reports show a downward trend in intentional homicides, the daily numbers presented during the president’s morning news conferences include a margin of error.
“One must be cautious when looking at these figures,” he said. “The data presented in those briefings are not final; they rely on a preliminary indicator created during the previous administration, despite the fact that it was known to contain a certain margin of error.”
Meanwhile, despite the reported dip in national averages, high-profile violence has not ceased.
On the eve of the June 11 World Cup opener, five police officers were shot dead and five others wounded in an ambush by unknown assailants in the southern state of Michoacan.
A day after the inaugural match, a body was found inside a bag in the trunk of a car outside a stadium in Tijuana, the border city where Iran’s national team has been training because of US travel restrictions. More recently, on June 23, Patricia Negrete, a prominent activist who had been searching for her sister since 2021, was murdered in Guanajuato.
Official data under scrutiny
While the figures has shown a marked decrease, Mexico’s homicide statistics have also been a subject of intense debate, fueled by the use of preliminary government figures and the introduction of new reporting categories. Former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s government had released daily homicide reports, often presented during his morning media briefings.
Sumano Rodriguez, however, points out that daily reports are a logistical challenge. The process, he noted, relies entirely on the capacity of state prosecutors’ offices to record and report incidents accurately and promptly for a morning deadline.
“The official registry has a 20% error margin since it is counted daily,” he added.
Critics argue that shifts in methodology may be masking the true scale of lethal violence in Mexico. Human rights organizations have alleged that cases of forced disappearances are sometimes used to underreport homicides. Sumano Rodriguez explains that the reclassification of incidents into new categories can also make homicide rates appear to drop.
“It is not necessarily that there are fewer homicides, but rather that they are no longer being classified as such; instead, they are being assigned to different categories,” he added.
The record-low figures reported since the World Cup began on June 11 may be related to other factors beyond the government’s security strategy. Sumano Rodriguez warned that there have been instances where criminal groups have chosen to maintain a low profile, and the World Cup could be the case.
“It is possible that, in part, criminals are trying to keep a low profile, given the World Cup, current pressure from the United States, and fear of potential actions by the Trump administration, among other factors,” he said.
