US energy agency slightly revises up oil price forecast for 2023

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) slightly revised up its 2023 forecast for global crude oil prices, citing the revisions in China’s demand after relaxing COVID-19 restrictions.

In the February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA revised up the price of Brent crude for 2023 to an average of $83.63 per barrel. In the report released in January, this figure was $83.10 per barrel.

The American benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is expected to average $77.84 a barrel in 2023. In the report released in January, this figure was $77.18.

According to the EIA, the revisions are the result of the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in China, increasing forecasted oil demand growth.

Because Russia produced more oil than expected in January, the EIA increased its forecast for Russian oil production through the end of 2024.

– US crude oil production increases

Crude oil output in the US is predicted to average 12.49 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, up from 11.90 million bpd in 2022.

In 2024, crude oil output in the country is expected to reach 12.65 million bpd.

OPEC’s output for petroleum and other liquid fuels this year is estimated to average 34.08 million bpd and 34.77 million bpd in 2024. The group’s crude oil production is projected to stand at 28.66 million bpd this year and 29.31 million bpd next year.

Global crude oil production will average 101.10 million bpd this year and 102.61 million bpd next year.

The agency also forecasts that global oil demand will reach 100.47 million bpd at the end of the year and 102.26 million bpd next year.

• US Energy Information Administration