US energy agency revises up crude oil price forecasts for 2024

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised up its forecast for crude oil prices on the back of ‘persistent withdrawals from global oil inventories.’

In its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released on Tuesday, the agency said that Brent crude oil price will average $89 per barrel in the second half of 2024, up from $84 per barrel in the first half of the year.

‘Higher prices in the second half of the year result from our forecast of persistent withdrawals from global oil inventories,’ the report read.

The EIA estimated that global oil inventories decreased by 500,00 barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of 2024 and will fall by 700,000 bpd in the second half of the year.

‘Inventory withdrawals stem in part from OPEC+ production cuts, which the group announced in early June would remain at current levels until at least the end of September,’ the EIA said.

As a result, the EIA forecasts that Brent will reach $86.37 per barrel and the American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) will hit $82.03 per barrel in 2024. These figures were $84.15 and $79.70, respectively, in the previous month’s report.

For next year, the agency expects Brent crude to average $88.38 per barrel and WTI to average $83.88 per barrel.

– US crude oil production revised up

Crude oil production in the US is expected to average 13.25 million bpd in 2024, up from 12.93 million bpd last year. The figure is around 10,000 bpd more than the previous month’s forecast.

Next year, crude oil output in the country is expected to reach 13.77 million bpd, up by about 60,000 bpd from last month’s prediction.

The agency also forecasts that average global oil production will be 102.43 million bpd at the end of the year and 104.6 million bpd next year.

Global oil demand, meanwhile, is anticipated to reach 102.91 million bpd in 2024, while demand is expected to be around 104.68 million bpd in 2025.

• BPD.
• Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)
• US Energy Information Administration (EIA)