– Conservatives tried to use ‘wedge issues’ to take away from economic concerns but that ‘hasn’t necessarily gone down very well,’ says British academic Mark Shanahan
– More than Labour ‘spectacularly rising,’ this election is about the Conservative Party ‘spectacularly falling,’ says Shanahan
LONDON
As millions in the UK prepare to elect a new government, no issue seems to be more important for voters than the cost-of-living crisis and the state of the economy.
According to polling firm YouGov’s research, a staggering 45% see the cost of living as their biggest concern – a stark indicator of what will be a decisive factor come voting day on July 4.
That is followed by health at 34%, while “the economy in general” was at 32%, ahead of immigration at 26%, poll results showed.
“Like most elections, the most important topic for voters is the economy and the state of the economy,” Mark Shanahan, an associate professor at the University of Surrey and an expert on political engagement, told Anadolu.
“The number one issue is the cost-of-living crisis that is still gripping this country.”
This reality is clearly not lost on those gunning for power in the UK, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak making the economy a key part of his campaign.
“Sunak has been at pains to say that inflation is falling, interest rates are about to come down, and so the cost-of-living crisis is turning a corner,” said Shanahan.
However, voters are still not “actually seeing the evidence of turning that corner,” he said.
“It’s been hard for him to push positive economic messages when much of the country still feels a lot worse off than when this government was first elected 14 years ago,” he said.
One strategy the Conservative party has tried to use is “to find a couple of wedge issues which they can really push and show a difference between themselves and Labour,” such as immigration and “stopping the boats,” Shanahan explained.
“It hasn’t necessarily gone down very well, and certainly for me, talking to activists who’ve been out knocking doors of voters around the country, immigration is an important issue, but it is not the number one issue,” he reiterated.
One major difference this time from the previous 2019 election is the lack of importance being attached to Brexit, with YouGov data showing a mere 8% of voters see it as a top issue and “just 2% say it is the most important issue to them.”
“The issue that both big parties are not talking about is Brexit,” said Shanahan, adding that Conservatives and Labour are “a bit afraid” to speak about it.
The Conservatives know they made “quite a large mess” of implementing it, while Labour are “worried even now” that they are going to scare off potential Leave voters, he explained.
Rise of Labour or downfall of Tories?
According to the latest YouGov voting intention poll, Labour is well ahead at 37%, with Conservatives lagging behind at 18% and the right-wing anti-migration Reform UK party at 17%.
For Shanahan, the massive gap between the top two parties is more about Conservatives “spectacularly falling” rather than a meteoric rise for Labour.
“I am not even sure that Labour is spectacularly rising. I think the Conservative Party is spectacularly falling, and we’ve reached the end of a long election cycle where the Conservative Party has been in power for 14 years,” he said.
Conservatives have been through a succession of leaders, from David Cameron to Theresa May to Boris Johnson to Liz Truss and then Sunak, but “things haven’t got better,” he said.
“The general mood in the country is that it is time for change,” he added.
Shanahan, however, dismissed the comparisons with 1997, when the Tony Blair-led Labour swept to power with a 179-seat majority, its highest-ever tally.
“In 1997, Labour had a very charismatic leader in Tony Blair … who very much caught the mood, caught the zeitgeist,” he said.
There is not that “sense of excitement with Keir Starmer,” he said, adding that Starmer looks at life in “quite a technical, judicial way.”
However, there is a feeling that he is better than the alternative, which is Conservatives who have spent the last five years “more concerned with infighting in their own party,” he said.
Shanahan said the possibility of a hung Parliament “has gone out the window” and the question now is just how big of a majority can Labour secure.
Is Reform UK set for major gains?
On Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which is polling just behind Conservatives, Shanahan said its rising numbers will not necessarily translate into Parliamentary seats.
“It is still perfectly conceivable that they will get no seats,” he said.
“The likelihood is that Nigel Farage will win a seat on his eighth attempt. He is a seven-time failed parliamentarian, but it is likely he will get a seat this time around.”
Shanahan said Reform UK is more like a business or private company, where Farage “owns the majority stake,” and one focused on “disengaged right-wing voters,” who are past Tory supporters.
“It’s not a huge community, but it’s a loud community,” he said.
Farage is also able to grab media attention although there is “very little detail” in their manifesto about how they will run the country if they come to power, he said.
“I still suspect that when all the votes are cast and counted next week, he may come up with 15% of the votes overall, but a small, single figure number of seats in a 650-seat Parliament,” he added.
