Study links sharp German electricity bill increases to rising AfD support

German households that faced larger-than-average increases in electricity payments during the 2022-2023 energy crisis were 7.5 percentage points more likely to support the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), according to a new study.

The study, titled “The Political Consequences of Energy Price Shocks: Evidence from Germany,” examined data collected from the same households between January 2023 and February 2024.

Researchers found no similar statistically significant increase in support for other political parties. They also found that higher electricity costs reduced support for climate policies.

The researchers said the political effect was particularly notable because the increase in electricity prices was not directly caused by climate policy. Instead, it followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the energy crisis that hit Europe.

The findings suggest that sharp increases in household energy costs can have political consequences beyond their immediate economic impact.

Higher electricity payments not only increased support for the AfD but also weakened backing for climate policies, indicating that voters may become less willing to support the energy transition when they associate it with rising household costs, even when those increases are caused by factors unrelated to climate policy.

– Higher bills change political preferences

The study used differences in the timing of household electricity payments to examine whether higher bills affected political preferences.

Most German households pay monthly installments based on their expected annual electricity use. Because suppliers adjust these payments at different times, some households faced higher bills earlier than others.

Researchers found that households exposed to larger increases were more likely to shift their support toward the AfD.

The effect also lasted for several months, suggesting that a temporary increase in energy costs can have longer-lasting political consequences.

The researchers said the AfD’s opposition to sanctions against Russia and its support for policies aimed at reducing energy costs may have made the party more attractive to voters affected by higher electricity bills.

– Government aids fail to offset political impact

The political shift occurred despite significant government support to households.

Germany introduced three major relief packages with a combined fiscal cost of about €95 billion (about $109.6 billion).

The measures included direct payments, tax reductions and temporary subsidies. In 2023, the government also introduced price caps for electricity, natural gas and district heating.

However, the study found that government compensation did not eliminate the political response to higher electricity costs.

Researchers found no significant difference in the shift toward the AfD between people who knew about the government support and those who did not.

They said this suggests that the timing of financial relief may matter. Households could react politically to a sharp increase in their bills before receiving government assistance.

– Energy costs weaken climate policy support

The study found that households facing larger electricity price increases became less supportive of climate policies.

The researchers said this points to a potential political risk for governments pursuing the energy transition.

Even when higher energy prices are caused by factors unrelated to climate policy, voters may associate rising household costs with the broader energy transition and become less supportive of climate measures.

The researchers said policymakers therefore face a challenge in balancing energy prices, climate goals and political support.

They cautioned, however, that the findings are based on Germany’s electricity billing system and should not automatically be applied to other countries.

– Economic crises fuel far-right gains in Germany

Germany’s history shows that severe economic and social crises can create conditions in which far-right movements gain support.

During the Great Depression of the early 1930s, mass unemployment, falling incomes and political instability contributed to the rapid rise of the Nazi Party, which came to power in 1933.

In the postwar period, Germany established strong democratic safeguards against political extremism, but far-right violence and movements have continued to emerge during periods of social and economic uncertainty, including the violent xenophobic attacks of the early 1990s and the rise of far-right networks in more recent decades.

Researchers therefore continue to examine how economic insecurity, political dissatisfaction and perceptions of government failure can influence support for radical-right parties.

• Alternative for Germany (AfD )
• Germany introduced three major relief packages
• The Political Consequences of Energy Price Shocks: Evidence from Germany