Solar potential in Türkiye’s quake-hit southeast can unlock clean energy goals

The high solar potential in Turkey’s earthquake-hit region can help the country meet its clean energy targets by providing consistent growth in renewable electricity, according to a new analysis released Wednesday by London-based energy think tank Ember.

The analysis depicts changes in the country’s clean energy generation from province to province between 2018 and 2022, emphasizing the need for increased solar deployment.

Currently, hydropower is the main source of renewable electricity in Türkiye, although this source is volatile for renewable generation due to droughts.

Hydroelectric generation dropped by 39% in the key provinces of Sanliurfa, Elazig and Diyarbakir from 2020 to 2021. Türkiye compensated for the fall in hydro generation by increasing electricity production from natural gas, leading to higher imports.

‘Türkiye relies on expensive imported gas to make up for hydro deficits. Accelerated wind and solar deployment would end this risky dependence,’ Ember said in the analysis.

Türkiye generated 11% of its electricity from wind and 4.7% from solar last year.

According to the report, the country has made remarkable progress in wind and solar over the last few years. Untapped solar potential in the country’s southern and southeastern provinces, on the other hand, makes meeting clean energy targets more difficult.

Under the national energy plan, solar capacity is aimed to become Türkiye’s largest energy source by 2035, rising from 9.4 gigawatts in 2022 to 32.9 gigawatts by 2030 and 52.9 gigawatts by 2035.

However, Ember says that annual solar capacity additions will need to triple from current levels to achieve this target, which is critical to unlocking the solar potential in southern provinces where potential and actual solar generation are mismatched.

Last year, only ten provinces accounted for half of solar generation, with Konya accounting for the largest share at 21%. The shares of high-potential provinces like Antalya and Van are only 3% and 2%, respectively.

According to the analysis, ‘Türkiye will need to incentivize solar in its underutilized southern and southeastern provinces to reach its goal of 3–4 GW of added solar capacity per year.’

Among the provinces with the highest solar potential are Kahramanmaras, Adiyaman, Malatya, Gaziantep, Sanliurfa, Mardin, Kilis, Mardin and Van in the southeast, while Mersin, Karaman, Nigde, Aksaray, Antalya, Burdur and Mugla rank among the highest solar potential provinces in the country.

• The high solar potential in Turkey's earthquake-hit region can help the country