Oil trade routes that take at least 5 times as long after war will likely result in more pollution

Oil trade routes are now at least five times longer than they were prior to the Russia-Ukraine war, raising the prospect of increased emissions from longer shipping routes.

While Europe shifted away from Russian suppliers and toward those in West Africa, Latin America, and the US, Russia shifted 90% of its crude exports, which were originally destined for European markets, to those in India and China.

Before the war, the voyage of a Russian oil ship from the Baltic ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk to European ports in the Netherlands, France, and Belgium took five to six days because Europe was Russia’s main oil export destination.

However, after European sanctions on Russian crude supplies came into effect in December 2022, Russian oil exports to ports in northwest Europe ground to a halt.

‘This means that Europe, which used to be supplied by Russia, needed to find oil elsewhere, and that elsewhere is pretty much a combination of West Africa, Latin America and the US. All of those (destinations) are much longer freight routes than from Russia’s Baltic Sea to northwest Europe,’ Viktor Katona, the lead crude analyst of commodity data and analytics firm Kpler, told Anadolu.

‘It was a five- or six-day journey, but today’s average voyage from West Africa or Latin America to Europe is about 25 days, which is five times longer than it used to be.’

Brazil’s crude exports to Europe increased from 236,959 barrels per day in February 2022 to 325,116 barrels per day in March 2023, the highest among Latin American countries. According to Kpler data, Brazilian exports reached a record high of 491,000 barrels per day in February this year, more than doubling the volume in a year.

The average journey from Brazil to Europe takes between 20 and 30 days, depending on the destination in Europe, with Spain and Portugal being the nearest neighbors and Germany and the Netherlands being the farthest away.

Mexican exports to Europe remained relatively at the same levels after the war, while Guyana’s exports to the continent reached 270,000 barrels a day from almost zero before the war.

Trinidad and Tobacco have seen a continuous crude flow to Europe in the last eight months.

The Netherlands holds one of the major oil centers in Rotterdam, while Italy, Portugal, Germany and France are the top destination countries for post-war Latin American crude volumes in Europe.

-Nigeria and Angola emerge as largest West African crude suppliers to Europe

More crude supplies from West African countries are making the longer voyage of approximately 25 days to Europe, filling the void left by the absence of Russian crude.

‘The US, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and all of West Africa are all trying to supply in areas where Russia was forced to vacate,’ said Jim Mitchell, an oil research manager of supply chain and commodities research at the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG).

While Nigeria became the biggest supplier to Europe among West African countries, Angola increased crude exports the most. Angola’s crude shipments to Europe showed a sustained rise since the beginning of the war, reaching over 300,000 barrels per day from an average of 33,000 barrels a day in February last year.

The Netherlands saw the biggest rise in crude flows from West African countries after the war.

Crude flows from the US to Europe increased significantly as the Netherlands, Italy, the United Kingdom, Finland, Lithuania, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Spain, and Canada increased their crude imports from the US.

The UK’s crude imports from the US rose from an average of 289,192 barrels a day in February 2022 to over 400,000 barrels in post-war months, while the Netherlands’ imports reached over 510,000 barrels per day in March 2023, almost doubling compared to a year earlier.

The majority of US crude loads from US Gulf ports to Europe take an average of 20 days.

-Greatest difference in travel time is from Russia to India

Russia’s oil exports are taking longer journeys as India and China have emerged as the country’s top export destinations.

Russian exports to these countries begin in the Baltic ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk, travel along the Baltic Sea, circumnavigate the Danish Islands, cross the British Straits, Gibraltar, Malta, Sicily, and the Suez Canal, and then continue through the Red Sea to India, which takes about 30-35 days, with the route to China taking 10 days longer.

However, Katona explained that not all crude grades take the slow 40–45-day delivery route because if ESPO blend crude shipments load from Russia’s Far East, the journey to China takes only about five days due to its proximity to Chinese shores.

According to Kpler data, Russia’s oil exports to India, including Ural, SBL, and ESPO, increased from zero in February 2022 to the highest level since the war in March 2023, at 1.99 million barrels per day.

‘The amount of Russian crude going to India has been increasing for nine consecutive months. It is pretty much a bromance or love story between the two countries,’ Katona said.

Since the start of the war, Russia’s crude exports to China have remained at an average of one million barrels per day, while Sri Lanka and Myanmar have emerged as significant export destinations for Russian crude, rising from marginal imports prior to the war.

Longer shipping routes are likely to raise emissions from shipping, an industry that accounts for 3% of global carbon emissions.

‘The world trade has become significantly more polluting than it used to be before, that is an absolute fact. The biggest increase in terms of voyage times into Asia is Russia to India. So this is definitely increasing emissions from shipping compared to five days into Rotterdam. Likewise, US, West African and Latin American exports to Europe also mean more emissions,’ Katona said.

-Shortest Russian supply route now Türkiye

Katona contended that Türkiye is the one country that is reducing overall shipping emissions for Russian crude and oil products, with a typical voyage from Russia’s only crude export terminal in Novorossiysk on the Black Sea coast to Türkiye lasting three to four days.

‘It is the shortest Russian supply route right now,’ he said, noting that Türkiye has been importing significant quantities of Russian crude and oil products.

Russia’s oil exports to Türkiye stood at 94,335 barrels per day in February 2022 and reached their highest level in September 2022 at 392,908 barrels per day, although imports dropped to 145,973 barrels per day in March 2023.

With Türkiye’s abundant refining capacity, which is very diesel-focused, the country has been importing Russian diesel for domestic consumption and exporting Turkish diesel to Europe, a move that Katona described as ‘technically legal and actually very smart.’

– Middle East still Asia’s largest supplier

Middle East exports to Asia, according to Katona, may be the exception in terms of longer voyages, as producer countries appear to be focusing more on supplying Asia, the closest buyer of Middle East crude.

Despite the increase in Russian oil exports to China and India, Middle Eastern countries are still the biggest crude suppliers to the Asian region.

Saudi Arabia’s crude exports to Asia stood at an average of 5.5 million barrels a day for the last 18 months, while the UAE’s exports remain close to 3 million barrels a day, data shows.

The majority of Saudi Arabia’s exports are loaded at Ras Tanura in the Persian Gulf, near Bahrain, before crossing the Strait of Hormuz and sailing out into the Indian Ocean.

According to Mitchell, Saudi Arabia is also able to break into markets that Russia previously catered to.

He argued that there is a lot more involved in the global energy market than shifting oil routes and that the diplomatic impact of all this is being revealed.

‘The Ukrainian war is really one of the big precipitators of de-globalization,’ he concluded.

• London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG).