The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday revised up its global oil demand forecast for 2023 by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to last month’s assessment.
Global oil demand is now estimated to reach around 102 million bpd in 2023, with a year-on-year rise of 2.2 million bpd, according to the IEA’s latest oil market report.
‘This marks an acceleration from the 2 million bpd estimate in last month’s report,’ the agency said in the report.
‘China’s demand recovery continues to surpass expectations, with the country setting an all-time record in March at 16 million bpd,’ the agency said, adding that ‘the disparity of recent months between a listless OECD and a robust non-OECD remains highly pertinent.’
Demand in OECD countries is estimated to stand at 46.3 million bpd, up 349,000 bpd from the previous year, and 55.71 million bpd in non-OECD nations, up by 1.86 million bpd.
– World oil production decreases
Global oil supply in April fell by 230,000 bpd to 101.1 million bpd with losses in Iraq, Nigeria and Brazil.
The daily crude oil production of the OPEC group decreased to 28.85 million bpd in April, a drop of about 310,000 bpd compared to the previous month. Production of OPEC natural gas liquids was recorded at 5.36 million bpd, bringing OPEC’s total oil production to 34.21 million bpd last month.
However, non-OPEC production saw an increase of around 80,000 bpd to 66.91 million bpd in April.
– Global output forecast
According to the report, OPEC+ crude oil production from all 23 countries fell by 290,000 bpd to 43.94 million bpd in April with combined losses of 500,000 bpd in Iraq and Nigeria mitigated by Angola’s rebound from maintenance and higher flows elsewhere.
‘Iran, exempt from OPEC+ cuts, produced at a three-year high. Venezuela, also spared from curbs, lifted output and Saudi Arabia pumped more. Russian production held steady,’ the report said.
The agency, taking into consideration the supply cuts announced by some OPEC+ countries on April 2, now forecasts that from April through December, OPEC+ oil production will drop by 850,000 bpd, while supply from those outside the OPEC+ alliance is predicted to rise by 710,000 bpd.
‘That would leave global output at 101 million bpd by end-2023, down 140,000 bpd from April,’ it said.
