Highlights of global energy market in 2022

Having just recovered from pandemic-induced demand weakness, the global energy sector experienced an unprecedented supply crisis this year after the eruption of the Russia-Ukraine war, reshaping the worldwide energy map.

Western countries unleashed successive waves of sanctions in response to Moscow’s ‘special military operation’ including a ban on hydrocarbon exports from Russia, one the world’s largest producers.

Moscow hit back with its own measures, cutting off or curtailing supply to ‘unfriendly countries’ that imposed sanctions against it and redirecting its oil and gas exports to Asian nations by offering them substantial discounts.

Oil and gas markets reeled amid these tit-for-tat blows, leaving EU countries scrambling to find alternative sources in place of Russian hydrocarbons.

– Concerns shift from demand to supply

Oil markets faced several challenges throughout the year, including demand concerns driven by China’s zero-COVID policy and weakening industrial data in that country, along with global economic recession and interest rate hikes by central banks around the world.

Markets also faced unprecedented supply constraints, especially after the Russia-Ukraine war began on Feb. 24, and production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+.

The year started with demand pressures caused by uncertainty amid the emergence of the coronavirus’ omicron variant, milder and shorter-lived than earlier strains.

On Jan 3, OPEC announced that Haitham Al-Ghais of Kuwait would replace Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo as its secretary-general.

On Jan. 4, the 23-member of OPEC+ decided to extend its plan to increase output by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) through February. Meanwhile, some member countries, like Nigeria and Libya, failed to meet production targets, resulting in a shortfall in the group’s overall output quota.

The OPEC+ production decisions received heavy criticism from several countries led by the US.

US President Joe Biden repeatedly asked the cartel’s producers to increase collective output, provide additional market supply, and lower crude prices.

Over the organization’s refusal to do so, the US Energy Department on Jan. 13 announced the sale of 18 million barrels of strategic crude reserves to six companies, including Exxon Mobil, a Valero Energy affiliate, and Saudi state enterprise refinery Motive.

The move was part of an earlier US-led initiative to release 50 million barrels of oil from the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR), the largest petroleum stockpile in the world used for emergencies.

Supply outages in Kazakhstan and Libya served as bullish pressures on the prices. Political unrest in OPEC member Kazakhstan after protests against a fuel price hike ended in the government’s resignation increased investors’ supply concerns.

Demonstrations that started in the oil-rich Mangystau region on Jan. 2 spread rapidly to other parts of the country, including the commercial hub and former capital Almaty, where thousands took to the streets.

On Feb. 2, OPEC+ once again decided to extend their plan of increasing output by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) through March. The price of Brent briefly hit as high as $90.50 per barrel by the time the meeting ended, posting a 1.50% daily increase. Brent surpassed $95 per barrel on Feb. 12 as the first signs of tensions between Russia and Ukraine emerged.

On Feb. 16, the United Arab Emirates-based Dragon Oil made one of the largest oil discoveries of the past 20 years in the Gulf of Suez, estimated to be around 100 million barrels.

– Exodus from Russia

On Feb. 24, Brent briefly hit over $100 a barrel after reports that Russia launched a full-scale war on Ukraine.

British energy giant bp announced on Feb. 27 that it exited its 19.75% shareholding in Rosneft amid the conflict, with Norway following suit a day later.

Amid talks of EU sanctions on Russia, oil prices spiked with Brent crude reaching $139 per barrel on March 7.

Later that day, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he instructed the government to change into rubles the payments ‘unfriendly countries’ made for Russia’s energy resources, a demand Germany and France rejected as a ‘violation of contracts.’

Shell, on March 8, announced plans to withdraw its involvement in Russian hydrocarbons, including crude oil, petroleum products, gas, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in a phased manner.

Biden announced that day that the US was banning all oil, natural gas, and energy imports from Russia, while the UK said it would ‘phase out’ imports of Russian oil and oil products by the end of the year.

On March 10, Italian energy group Eni decided to no longer buy oil and oil products from Russia.

On March 23, French energy giant TotalEnergies also said it would halt Russian oil and petroleum product purchases by the end of 2022, as well as suspend activities in the country.

The same day, the price of Brent oil hit $120 a barrel over reports that Russian and Kazakh oil exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) from the Black Sea would be halted for a month and a half due to storms and bad weather in the Black Sea.

– EU countries come to grips with dependency on Russia

On March 25, Germany vowed to gradually slash its dependency on Russian hydrocarbon products by fall, cutting its coal imports by half and its oil imports starting in June.

On March 30, Poland announced plans to wean itself off Russian oil imports by the end of 2022.

On March 31, OPEC+ agreed to adhere to the 400,000 bpd output boost through May, adding 32,000 bpd by adjusting the baseline production levels of some countries. The group also said it stopped using International Energy Agency (IEA) data to assess OPEC members’ compliance with production quotas.

On April 1, President Biden announced the release of 180 million barrels of oil from the US strategic reserves over six months to drive down prices at the pump as Americans grappled with costlier gas. This was followed by a massive price collapse with Brent losing around 13% declining from $119.90 a barrel to $103.41 per barrel in a single day.

On April 6, oil prices dropped to as low as $100.54 after the IEA announced a collective oil stock release of 120 million barrels, including 60 million from the US.

On April 8, Japan said it planned to phase out coal imports from Russia while seeking other suppliers amid growing sanctions on Moscow.

On May 10, Japan also announced plans to gradually reduce its reliance on oil imports from Russia.

On May 22, Lithuania stopped importing Russian oil and electricity.

On May 26, the UK government introduced a temporary tax on oil and gas companies that made high profits from increasing energy prices caused by the war between Russia and Ukraine.

On May 31, EU leaders reached a late-night agreement on cutting Russian oil imports by 90% and exempting crude oil transported by pipeline to Hungary.

On June 2, EU envoys approved the bloc’s sixth sanctions package against Russia, with measures including a partial oil embargo and the exclusion of Sberbank from the international SWIFT payment system.

On July 19, the EU and Azerbaijan announced a new deal to double Azerbaijani gas imports as part of the bloc’s efforts to curb its dependency on Russian energy. Later in the day, the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) and Russia’s Gazprom inked a $40 billion memorandum of understanding (MoU) for oil and gas projects and technological cooperation.

On July 26, EU energy ministers reached a political agreement to lower the bloc’s natural gas consumption by 15% amid threats from Russia to cut off supplies.

On Aug. 1, Haitham Al Ghais of Kuwait took office as OPEC’s secretary-general at the Secretariat in Vienna, Austria.

On Aug. 9, Brussels’ plans to reduce gas consumption came into effect, aiming to save 45 billion cubic meters yearly.

On Aug. 10, the EU decision to ban coal imports from Russia came into force.

On Aug. 26, French energy company TotalEnergies announced that it had sold 49% of its stake in Terneftegaz, one of the largest Russian oil companies, to Novatek.

On Aug. 31 Gazprom halted gas deliveries to Europe via the key Nord Stream pipeline over three days of maintenance work.

On July 1, G7 finance ministers agreed to finalize the implementation of a price cap on Russian crude, while prohibiting the maritime export of Russian-origin crude oil and petroleum products.

On Sept. 3, Gazprom said the Nord Stream pipeline would remain shut due to a technical issue and that it would remain inoperative until fixed. Moscow also said it would suspend the supply of oil and petroleum products to countries that agreed to cap prices for Russian oil.

On Sep. 5, OPEC+ agreed to cut production by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October.

On Sept. 16, Germany appointed a trustee to Rosneft Germany, the German subsidiary of Russian energy company Rosneft, for the security of energy supplies.

On Sept. 20, the US announced plans to sell up to 10 million barrels of crude from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) to help lower energy costs for American families

On Sept. 22, the British government lifted a ban on fracking for shale gas that had been in place since 2019.

On Sept. 26, the price of Brent oil dropped to its lowest level since Jan. 14 at $84.07 a barrel as several countries opted to hike interest rates to tame rising inflation amid recession concerns, triggering anxiety over weak demand.

On Sept. 29, the EU proposed a new sanctions package on Russia, including an oil price cap for third countries, previously agreed by G7 countries.

On Oct. 5, during their first in-person ministerial meeting since March 2020, OPEC+ agreed to cut production by 2 million bpd from the August 2022 required production levels, starting in November.

On Oct. 12, Polish pipeline operator PERN reported a leak detected on one of the two lines of the Druzhba pipeline carrying crude oil from Russia to Europe.

On Dec. 4, OPEC+ ratified its decision to cut oil output by 2 million bpd. The move came just a day before the EU’s much-expected ban on Russian oil came into effect.

On Dec. 5, an EU embargo on Russia’s seaborne crude oil came into effect, along with a price cap of $60 per barrel. Russia warned Western countries of the consequences that the price cap would have on global energy, saying it would not recognize any price ceilings. It added that an official response was being prepared to address the issue.

On Dec. 6, however, the price of Brent oil fell below $80 a barrel, its lowest in 11 months, over weak demand expectations as aggressive monetary tightening risked forcing the American economy into recession in 2023.

– War-propelled gas prices in Europe

Natural gas prices increased to record levels this year with the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war. Gas prices in Europe began climbing in March and peaked in the summer months.

On Jan. 26, Russian energy company Gazprom announced that it had established a company in Germany for the licensing of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. A statement by Nord Stream 2 AG, the pipeline project’s executive firm, said a subsidiary named Gas For Europe had also been established in Germany.

After Russia’s war on Ukraine began, gas prices in Europe surged by 30.7% in March futures contracts. In financial markets, stock prices fell sharply as the Ukraine crisis escalated, pushing up oil, energy, and gold prices.

On March 8, the EU revealed plans to reduce the amount of gas imported from Russia by two-thirds within a year. The EU Commission announced its ‘REPowerEU’ plan, which involves finding new gas suppliers, turning to alternative fuels, accelerating renewable investments, and filling natural gas tanks before winter to increase energy supply security and reduce dependency on Russia.

According to the plan, EU nations are also to increase their liquefied natural gas supply, while at the same time boosting gas purchases through pipelines from suppliers outside of Russia.

In the US, President Biden signed a decree banning the import of oil, liquefied natural gas, and coal from Russia.

On March 16, German energy company E.ON reported that it had stopped gas purchases from Gazprom’s European companies due to the war, while Lithuania stopped buying Russian natural gas completely in April.

Russia, meanwhile, suspended gas supplies to Poland, citing the country’s refusal to pay Gazprom in rubles for contracted gas supplies on April 26.

The company stopped the flow of natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria on April 27.

It reported that natural gas shipments to Finland and the Netherlands were also completely halted on May 21 and May 31, respectively.

Gazprom announced that gas shipments to Latvia were also stopped on July 30.

On Aug. 31, natural gas shipments via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline were completely suspended on the grounds that the necessary maintenance could not be carried out, turning a three-day halt into an indefinite affair.

Due to explosions on both Nord Stream 1 and line A of Nord Stream 2, pressure levels dropped and gas leaks occurred on Sept. 26.

On Nov. 7, gas and oil drilling company Energean announced a gas discovery of 13 billion cubic meters off the coast of Israel.

EU country leaders met in Brussels to discuss measures to be taken on Europe’s energy crisis on Oct. 20.

On Dec. 19, EU energy ministers agreed on a gas price cap of €180 (about $191) per megawatt-hour. The regulation, agreed to come into force on Feb. 15, aims to limit episodes of excessive gas prices in the EU that do not reflect world market prices, while ensuring the security of energy supply and stability of financial markets.

• Russia-Ukraine war