World oil production rises by more than 0.22% or around 230,000 barrels per day (bpd) to nearly 103.43 million bpd in July, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest report on Tuesday.
According to the Oil Market Report, crude oil production by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) increased to 27.34 million bpd in July, a rise of 250,000 bpd compared to the previous month.
The group’s total oil production reached approximately 32.95 million bpd over the same period.
However, daily oil production in non-OPEC countries fell by 50,000 bpd in July to an estimated 70.47 million bpd.
Global oil supply rose in July after significantly higher OPEC+ flows, driven by Saudi Arabia and Iraq, more than offset losses from producers outside the bloc, the report said.
According to IEA, oil output stood 1.8 million bpd above a year ago, with the US accounting for nearly half of the increase.
– Global supply forecast
The report forecasts a global oil output increase by average 730,000 barrels per day in 2024, reaching a record high of 102.9 million bpd.
‘Non-OPEC+ production is expected to expand by 1.5 million bpd, while OPEC+ output is on course to decline by 760,000 bpd if existing voluntary cuts are maintained,’ the report said.
Global growth next year is forecast to accelerate to around 1.9 million bpd, boosting supply to a new annual high of close to 105 million bpd.
– Global demand growth
According to the report, global oil demand is set to rise by 970,000 bpd this year to around 103.06 million bpd, relatively unchanged from the last month’s report.
Global oil demand increased by 870,000 bpd year-on-year in the second quarter of 2024, with growth moderately above the first quarter of 2024 rate of 760,000 bpd.
‘Still, this marks a major deceleration from last year’s annual 2.1 million bpd rise, as baselines normalize and relatively subdued macroeconomic factors reassert themselves as the chief drivers of oil demand,’ the report said.
In particular, weak growth in China, following the post-COVID surge of 2023, now significantly drags on global gains, according to the report.
Demand in OECD countries is expected to decrease by 10,000 bpd this year, reaching around 45.64 million bpd, while non-OECD demand is anticipated to rise by about 980,000 bpd to approximately 57.42 million bpd.
In 2025, global oil demand is projected to reach 104.01 million bpd, with a yearly growth of 953,000 bpd.
