World oil supply rose by 0.12%, or around 130,000 barrels per day (bpd), to 103.44 million bpd in November, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest report on Thursday.
According to the Oil Market Report, crude oil production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) increased to 27.21 million bpd in November, a rise of 180,000 bpd compared to the previous month.
The group’s total oil production reached approximately 32.83 million bpd over the same period.
Meanwhile, daily oil production in non-OPEC countries decreased by 50,000 bpd in November to 70.61 million bpd.
‘Last month’s rebound was led by OPEC+ and in particular the continued recovery in Libyan and Kazakhstan output,’ the agency said.
However, ‘non-OPEC+ supply declined driven by seasonally weaker Brazilian biofuels and, to a lesser extent, a late season hurricane impacting Gulf of Mexico production.’
– Non-OPEC+ supply accounts for over 70% of growth in 2025
The IEA forecasts that the global oil supply is on track to rise by 630,000 bpd year-on-year to 102.9 million bpd this year and increase further by 1.9 million bpd to 104.8 million bpd next year.
According to the report, non-OPEC+ accounts for over 70% of growth in 2025, ‘almost exclusively from supply increases in the Americas.’
‘OPEC+ could add around 460,000 bpd, largely due to additional NGL and condensate volumes and assuming no unwinding of OPEC+ voluntary crude reductions,’ the agency said.
IEA highlighted that ‘supply estimates exclude a return to higher quotas given the uncertainty surrounding when the group will start implementing the phase-out of these cuts, notwithstanding countries already producing above their targets.’
– Global demand growth
According to the report, global oil demand is set to rise by 1.08 million bpd in 2025 to around 103.9 million bpd. The agency had estimated an increase of 1 million bpd in its previous report.
Demand in OECD countries is expected to reach 45.6 million bpd, while non-OECD demand is anticipated to become 58.3 million bpd.
Global demand is projected to average around 102.81 million bpd in this year, with a yearly growth of around 850,000 bpd.
‘While non-OECD demand growth, notably in China, has slowed markedly, emerging Asia will continue to lead gains in 2024 and 2025,’ the IEA said.
