Global oil demand to increase 10% by 2028, 16% by 2045: OPEC

Global oil demand will increase by over 10% by 2028 and more than 16% by 2045 compared to 2022, according to the World Oil Outlook 2045 by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Monday.

OPEC forecasts that primary global energy demand will increase to 359 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 2045, representing a rise of 23% from the 2022 level.

‘Growth is expected to slow gradually from the relatively high short-term rates to more modest long-term increments, in line with moderating population and economic growth,’ the report said.

The non-OECD region will drive energy demand growth, with an increase of 69 million boepd over the outlook period, while around 28% of non-OECD growth is expected to come from India alone, according to the report.

Moreover, energy demand in OECD countries is set to marginally decline over the forecast period.

However, the report said that ‘demand for all primary fuels is set to increase in the long term, with the exception of coal, due to energy policy and climate commitments.”

The strongest growth is expected for other renewables, notably wind and solar, which will increase by 34.3 million boepd, based on strong policy support in many regions. The share of other renewables in the energy mix is set to rise from around 2.7% in 2022 to 11.7% in 2045.

– Oil to retain highest share in global energy mix

Oil demand will also grow strongly during the outlook period, and even though its share in the energy mix declines modestly, oil will remain the fuel with the largest share by 2045 at 29.5%.

Natural gas demand is set to increase by 20 million boepd over the outlook period, reaching 87 million boepd in 2045.

The share of fossil fuels in the energy mix will drop from over 80% in 2022 to about 69% in 2045, due to the decline of coal. Nonetheless, the combined share of oil and gas in the energy mix will still represent 54% in 2045.

– OECD oil demand set to contract in long term

Demand for oil as a primary fuel is set to reach a level of 110.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2028, representing an increase of 10.6 million bpd compared to 2022.

According to the report, during the medium term, non-OECD oil demand is expected to increase by a robust 10.1 million bpd, reaching a level of 63.7 million bpd by 2028. OECD demand will also increase by 0.5 million bpd over the medium term.

In the long term, global oil demand is anticipated to increase from 99.6 million bpd in 2022 to 116 million bpd in 2045, with a rise of more than 16 million bpd.

Non-OECD oil demand is expected to increase by almost 26 million bpd between 2022 and 2045, while in contrast, OECD oil demand is set to contract by around 9.3 million bpd.

– India to lead oil demand growth

‘The largest contributions to the non-OECD oil demand increase are set to come from India, Other Asia, China, Africa and the Middle East,’ the report said.

According to the report, India will add 6.6 million bpd to oil demand over the forecast period, while Other Asia’s oil demand is set to increase by 4.6 million bpd, China’s by 4 million bpd, Africa’s by 3.8 million bpd and the Middle East’s by 3.6 million bpd.

• Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries