Global natural gas production is expected to reach 5.32 trillion cubic meters (tcm) by 2050 — an increase of 1.24 tcm from 2023 levels — driven by growing international demand, according to a recent industry report.
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum’s (GECF) 2050 Outlook report states that global natural gas production is projected to grow by 31% by 2050, compared to 2023.
According to the report, annual production is expected to grow by 1.6% until 2030, then slow to 1% in the 2030s and further decline to 0.6% in the 2040s.
– Middle East to lead production growth
Regional natural gas production forecasts for the 2023-2050 period reveal diverse trends influenced by resource endowments and market dynamics.
The report states that the Middle East is expected to lead in absolute production growth during this period.
The Middle East is anticipated to add approximately 461 billion cubic meters (bcm) to its production by 2050, supported by robust reserves, infrastructure expansion, and a strategic focus on low-carbon gas solutions.
Eurasia is expected to follow with an increase of 362 bcm, driven primarily by advancements in Russia’s production and gas utilization programs targeting Asian markets.
Meanwhile, Africa is projected to record the strongest growth momentum, expanding its role in global natural gas markets, the report says.
It adds that Africa’s natural gas production is projected to grow by 250 bcm, underscoring its rising prominence as a supplier, bolstered by increasing investments in LNG and pipeline infrastructure.
– North America maintains position as world’s top producer
North America is forecast to contribute a relatively modest 107 bcm to its production over the same period, while maintaining its position as the world’s top producer.
In terms of total regional output, North America’s production is expected to rise to 1.38 tcm by 2050, retaining its leading position.
Asia Pacific and Latin America are expected to add 91 bcm and 87 bcm, respectively, supported by domestic demand and infrastructure development.
In contrast, Europe’s natural gas production is projected to decline by 119 bcm, attributed to resource depletion and policy-driven shifts away from fossil fuels, the report states.
Eurasia’s output is projected to reach 1.21 tcm, while the Middle East is anticipated to hit 1.15 tcm.
– Conventional gas expected to increase by over 1 tcm
Natural gas production from conventional reservoirs is forecast to remain the cornerstone of global natural gas supply, driving production growth through 2050.
Conventional gas production is expected to increase by over 1 tcm, reaching 3.8 tcm by 2050, with an average annual growth rate of 1% over the outlook period, report said.
‘The regions propelling this growth are Africa, Eurasia, and the Middle East. Africa is expected to emerge as a key contributor, with its growing conventional gas production,’ it said.
The report states that unconventional gas production is projected to increase by 231 bcm, reaching 1.51 tcm by 2050, but its share in global gas production is anticipated to decline to 28%, down from 31% in 2023.
