Global coal demand is expected to peak in 2024 and plateau through 2027, as rapid growth in renewable energy sources help cleaner energy production meet rising global electricity demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.
The latest edition of the IEA’s annual coal market report, Coal 2024, reveals a strong rebound in global coal consumption following a sharp decline during the pandemic.
According to the report, coal use will reach a record 8.77 billion tonnes in 2024.
Coal prices remain 50% above the 2017–2019 average, with production hitting a record high in 2024, IEA said.
However, growth is expected to level off by 2027 as structural shifts reshape the industry.
International coal trade is set to reach a record of 1.55 billion tonnes in 2024.
The report predicts that demand will remain steady near current levels through 2027, driven by the growing role of renewable energy in power generation and a plateau in coal consumption in China.
China intensified its energy diversification efforts in 2024, expanding nuclear power and significantly accelerating solar and wind capacity additions.
‘In most advanced economies, coal demand has peaked and is projected to decline steadily through 2027, driven by stringent policies like those in the EU and the availability of alternative fuels, such as natural gas in North America,’ IEA added.
‘Our models show global demand for coal plateauing through 2027 even as electricity consumption rises sharply,’ IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori noted.
‘However, weather factors – particularly in China, the world’s largest coal consumer – will have a major impact on short-term trends for coal demand,’ Sadamori said.
‘The speed at which electricity demand grows will also be very important over the medium term,’ he added.
