- Interim president Gen. Brice Oligui Nguema leads the 8-way race, with corruption and public distrust set to challenge whoever wins, analyst Ochieng tells Anadolu
- ‘The Gabon coup was a bit of an outlier, but also probably one of the more preferable transitions that have taken place considering the turbulence in the region,’ says Ochieng
ISTANBUL
Gabon is preparing for its first presidential election since a military coup ended the Bongo family’s 56-year grip on power, setting the stage for a return to civilian rule in the Central African nation.
About 1.16 million voters are expected to begin casting their ballots at 7 a.m. (0600GMT) on Saturday in an election that will run for 11 hours. This includes roughly 860,000 registered voters from the 2024 constitutional referendum, along with 300,000 newly registered voters — many of them young people voting for the first time.
Last November, the country held a referendum to approve a new constitution, widely viewed as a key milestone on the road to democratic elections. The vote followed more than a year after the August 2023 coup that ousted President Ali Bongo and brought Gen. Brice Oligui Nguema — leader of the Republican Guard and the coup’s mastermind — to power as transitional president.
Unlike the chaotic and contested August 2023 vote — marred by protests, an internet blackout, and a curfew — this election is expected to proceed “calmly and peacefully,” reflecting a relatively smooth 18-month transition, according to Beverly Ochieng, a security analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
“I think this just demonstrates how much power Oligui himself has consolidated,” she told Anadolu, noting that the business environment had also enjoyed a period of “maintained productivity” amid the political calm.
While socio-economic grievances persist — including threats of a strike by the Oil Union over pay and working conditions — the transitional government has kept the sector stable by resisting a walkout, Ochieng said.
Libreville has also had the benefit of stability in its ties beyond the country’s borders and region, she added. “Gabon didn’t have sanctions due to its military coup. It has good relationships with its neighbors, even with France and other international partners.”
Constitutional foundation for reform
A major change under the new Constitution is the introduction of a two-term presidential limit — a measure designed to curb the kind of dynastic rule exemplified by the Bongo family, Ochieng noted.
It also sets a seven-year presidential term, meaning a successful candidate could remain in office for up to 14 years. An age limit of 70 was also introduced, effectively disqualifying Albert Ondo Ossa, the main opposition candidate in the 2023 election.
Revised eligibility rules now require presidential candidates to have either a Gabonese parent or a Gabonese spouse — provisions that, Ochieng said, put “the Bongo claim, even if there were some political intentions and ambitions, in a bit of an awkward position.”
Other reforms to Gabon’s electoral code aim to curb fraud and corruption. Candidates must now disclose the sources and use of their campaign funds — whether privately or party-financed — within 60 days of the election.
“It’s a way of trying to ensure that there’s transparency and perhaps the political party not being unduly influenced either by commercial operators or other stakeholders in the political class,” Ochieng explained.
A Bongo-free ballot, but their legacy lingers
For the first time in over five decades, the Bongo name will be absent from the ballot. Still, “the shadow of this family does loom large because of the perception of a dynastic political system,” Ochieng said.
Interim President Oligui is widely seen as the frontrunner. The new Constitution allowed him to declare his candidacy, and though a distant relative of the Bongo family, Nguema has sought to distance himself from the era’s legacy, “whether it’s high-level corruption or cronyism or government mismanagement.”
His main challenger is Alain-Claude Bilie-By-Nze, a former prime minister in Ali Bongo’s government.
“Despite his efforts to show himself as a contrast, as a possible change-maker, he does remain quite a weak counterweight, and part of that reason is that he’s still strongly associated in the public with Bongo,” Ochieng said.
Six other candidates are in the race, including 36-year-old Zenaba Chaning — the only woman running — and several entrepreneurs looking to distance themselves from both the military and political elite. One candidate is campaigning on a platform of breaking away from the CFA franc, appealing to nationalist sentiments.
Still, Ochieng said Nguema is seen as likely to secure a decisive first-round victory, with few expecting a run-off if the general surpasses 50% of the vote in the first round.
Challenges ahead for Gabon’s next leader
Regardless of who wins, the new president will face an uphill battle to rebuild public trust in institutions long seen as compromised by corruption and political interference.
Ochieng said the incoming administration will need to prioritize transparency and governance reform across the judiciary, public sector, and regulatory agencies.
“Pledges are one thing, but once it touches on a new government, that sense of due diligence will be tested,” she said.
Another pressing challenge is infrastructure — especially outside major cities like Libreville and Port-Gentil, which have benefited from investment while other parts of the country remain underserved.
“Even though Libreville and Port-Gentil are the ones that have benefited from strong infrastructure, parts of the country remain disconnected and hard to reach, and underdeveloped,” she noted.
Calls are also growing to diversify the economy beyond oil, which remains vulnerable to global price swings. Sectors such as mining, timber, and agriculture offer potential, Ochieng said but will require strong regulation to attract foreign investment.
“Despite the fact that Gabon was not affected by sanctions, it does have fairly high levels of debt, and the oil sector is not the only way that can be pegged on the economy,” she said.
So far, the transitional government has maintained a pro-business stance, avoiding disruptive regulatory changes and ensuring commercial stability.
Regional anchor in uncertain times?
Looking beyond its borders, Gabon may emerge as a rare island of stability in an increasingly volatile region.
In the absence of major regional shifts, Ochieng said, “The Gabon coup was a bit of an outlier, but also probably one of the more preferable transitions that have taken place considering the turbulence in the region.”
Gabon is expected to remain a key member of the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), contributing through its oil, gas, mining, and agricultural sectors while supporting the CFA franc’s stability.
“France will probably remain, at least for the next one year, a very strong economic and even security partner, despite the reduction of its forces,” Ochieng said.
She noted that China is likely to expand its footprint — particularly in infrastructure and in upstream and downstream oil operations — especially as some of its projects in the Sahel have stalled.
Russia may also look to increase its influence, though Gabon is expected to tread carefully in managing its international partnerships.
“Even though the government in Gabon will probably be more cautious about how it engages with other powers, considering the kind of instability we’ve seen in other regions, they will remain open to any investment that empowers its local sector,” Ochieng said.
Ochieng said that while the nationalization of the oil sector empowers entities like Gabon Oil Company and enforces local content requirements, Gabon will be open to external actors.
As oil-producing neighbors like Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea grapple with rising instability, Gabon may increasingly be viewed as a safe haven.
“Gabon might be the country that becomes an anchor for people looking to pivot away from areas where they feel their risks are much higher.”
