By Anadolu Agency
April 22, 2026 11:23 amChina, which largely weathered the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz in March with only a limited decline in crude imports, is expected to record a sharp decline in April, according to analysts.
Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one quarter of global seaborne oil trade flows, was effectively closed to shipping traffic.
The disruption in this critical chokepoint has impacted major Asian importers to varying degrees.
Approximately 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and petroleum products transited through the Strait of Hormuz last year, with the bulk of flows directed toward Asia, particularly China and India, while Japan and South Korea remain highly dependent on this route.
While maritime transit through the strait was halted, vessels bound for China were reportedly allowed to proceed under coordination efforts, according to statements by the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
– March flows held steady with slight decrease
In March, when supply disruptions stemming from the Strait of Hormuz were felt most acutely, Japan, South Korea, and India recorded significant declines in import volumes. China, however, diverged from its regional peers with only a marginal contraction in flows.
“Timing and domestic buffering were key,” Neil Crosby, head of oil research at Geneva-based data and analytics firm Sparta Commodities, told Anadolu.
Crosby noted that much of the Middle Eastern crude arriving in China in March had already cleared the strait before disruptions escalated in late February.
“China is less vulnerable than its neighbors, meeting over 25% of its demand through domestic oil production, whereas Japan and South Korea are almost entirely import-dependent,” Crosby stated.
He added that China also moved aggressively into the market for Latin American crude grades. “But imports will likely drop soon, perhaps in April or May.”
As the world’s largest crude importer, China brought in roughly 11.5 million bpd last year, exceeding the combined imports of India, Japan and South Korea.
Around 45% of China’s crude imports are estimated to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Data from China’s General Administration of Customs showed that the country’s crude imports in March fell 2.8% year-on-year to around 11.8 million bpd. However, first-quarter imports rose 8% year-on-year, averaging about 11.5 million bpd.
By contrast, India’s imports in March declined about 17% year-on-year, Japan’s imports fell 33% and South Korea’s dropped roughly 37%. During the period, India increased purchases of Russian crude, South Korea turned to Canadian supply, and Japan drew on strategic reserves to safeguard supply security amid rising energy prices.
– Russian crude cushions impact
Crosby also underlined the importance of Russian crude in cushioning China against Hormuz-related risks.
“Russian supplies were critical,” he said. “Russia is China’s top supplier, and its crude, delivered via overland pipelines and Pacific seaborne routes, completely bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.”
“As Gulf maritime risks spiked, China leaned heavily on these secure routes, with imports of Russian ESPO crude jumping significantly month-over-month,” Crosby said.
With sanctions waivers for Russian seaborne crude halted, India is likely to take fewer barrels, potentially leaving more Urals crude for China going forward, Crosby added.
– Crude imports set to slide to 9.5 million bpd
Due to travel distance, China’s March crude imports have not been significantly disrupted by supply disruptions from the Middle East Gulf, said Sun Jianan, senior oil analyst at Energy Aspects.
“We expect imports to fall sharply in April to 9.5 million bpd, the lowest since January 2025,” Sun added.
According to Sun, the decline will be driven by a month-on-month drop of about 1.7 million bpd in Middle East Gulf volumes and reduced seaborne inflows from Russia.
“Our cargo-tracking data indicate that imports from Russia will total around 1.7 million barrels per day in April, down by roughly 500,000 barrels per day compared with February,” Sun added.
Sun said China’s crude stocks stand at around 500 million barrels, adding that commercial inventories may decline slightly in the short term, with fresh reserve buying possible over the medium term.
While many countries tapped oil inventories to offset supply losses triggered by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, China continued to build stocks in March.
International Energy Agency data suggests global observed oil inventories fell by 85 million barrels in March. In the same period, China is estimated to have added around 40 million barrels to its reserves, averaging 1.3 million bpd in stock builds.
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