*Mustafa Oğuz Tuna holds a Ph.D. from the Center for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy, University of Dundee and is academic at Ibn Haldun University in Istanbul
Türkiye’s most recent gas discoveries, totaling 710 billion cubic meters (bcm) are valued at a trillion US dollars. This significant discovery, combined with the country’s extensive gas infrastructure, which allows gas to be supplied to 15 countries via seven pipelines and LNG terminals, raises the question of whether the country has the capacity to become a gas hub.
The country’s underground natural gas facilities at Silivri with an annual storage capacity of 4.6 billion cubic meters and Salt Lake (Tuz Gölü) with an annual storage capacity of 1.2 billion cubic meters, underpin the country’s ability to achieve its gas hub goal.
Where there is energy, however, there must be strong governmental will, or, in other words, political stability and well-proven national security. These two factors are necessary for the extraction and utilization of local resources, as well as attracting international actors to this lucrative market.
Türkiye has maintained political stability over the last two decades, and it has recently maintained its facilitative role in the face of the Russia-Ukraine war. On the one hand, Türkiye is the only Asian country supplying Ukraine with world-renowned unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), also known as drones, which have game-changing capabilities in the conflict. On the other hand, Türkiye is the only European country negotiating current and future energy policies, including nuclear power, alongside Russia. Such strong bilateral ties have assisted Türkiye in gaining Russia’s reliance in the face of the European embargo applied to Russia.
Second, Türkiye has established a global reputation in the defense industry, particularly through breakthroughs in the aviation sector in the last decade. Positive developments in the defense sector will inevitably boost trade with international energy players, including state-backed investors eager to expand business, and thus provide the country with the latest energy technology.
Furthermore, Türkiye is moving closer to becoming an energy hub, thanks to the European Union’s ban on Russian gas due to the ongoing conflict with Ukraine and because, with the gas infrastructure in place, the country’s advantageous geopolitical location offers an alternative route for Russian gas.
Türkiye has already taken steps to expand its gas trade with neighboring countries. The latest memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the long-time Russian ally, Bulgaria, covers the annual transfer of 1.5 bcm of natural gas through a 13-year contract. This agreement is set to become a catalyst for the expansion of gas supplies through the TurkStream gas pipeline to other established customers in the Balkans, namely Greece, North Macedonia, Romania, Bosnia Herzegovina, Serbia and Hungary.
The trilateral summit attended by Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan in December has also paved the way for the flow of more Caspian and Turkic world gas to Europe via Türkiye.
The seven international pipelines, 15 entry points, and five LNG terminals, along with Europe’s biggest gas storage facilities at Silivri which Turkiye hosts, have not gone unnoticed by other interested parties who are also keen to secure their gas markets.
These countries include Libya, Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Syria, and Qatar, all of which have considered LNG compatibility with gas transmission initially in the Thrace region of Türkiye, given its proximity to the Russian Federation (west) pipeline from Russia to Türkiye, as well as the Silivri underground natural gas storage facility and connections through the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) that connects the massive Shah Deniz gas field in Azerbaijan.
However, after further consideration, the area determined to be in the closest proximity to pipeline routes and Europe’s largest storage facilities is the Marmara Ereğlisi LNG terminal, located 95 kilometers west of Istanbul with a 30-year-long experience operating on Turkish territorial waters.
An energy summit in Istanbul in February will showcase the plan to international gas players to consider this terminal as an option to expand gas supplies, with the aim of putting Türkiye front and center as a gas hub candidate given the mediating role it has played in the changing gas market.
