LONDON
A period of turmoil and bloody violence known as the Troubles was ended by the Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland after three decades of sectarian violence.
The Agreement was signed April 10, 1998, by then-British Prime Minister Tony Blair, Unionist and Republican politicians in Northern Ireland; Sinn Fein, the political wing of the IRA and the Irish government.
The Agreement became a model studied by peacemakers around the world, but, 25 years after the deal was made, peace is still fragile.
The legacy of the Good Friday Agreement is tested as sectarian strife is never far away.
The terror threat level in Northern Ireland has been increased from substantial to severe, meaning an attack is highly likely.
As US President Joe Biden prepares to visit the country to mark the Agreement’s 25th anniversary, police have warned that dissident Republicans are plotting terror attacks.
The chairman of the Police Federation for Northern Ireland, Liam Kelly, said the escalation of the threat level was justified.
“It was clear dissident republican groups were still actively wedded to causing murder and destruction,” he said.
The announcement followed the shooting of senior detective John Caldwell. The New IRA was blamed.
Chris Bambery, a political analyst and author, told Anadolu that the Good Friday Agreement was the only possible outcome at the time.
First, the British government recognized that it could defeat the Irish Republican Army (IRA) militarily, while on the other hand, the IRA understood that it was not going to defeat the British Army, he said.
The outset of the Agreement was initially opposed by the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) of Ian Paisley as it took time for it to come to terms with the deal.
Since the agreement was formed, politics in Northern Ireland have changed in several ways that were not “foreseen” by the British and Irish governments in 1998.
Northern Ireland was created in 1921 to have a permanent Unionist majority for the maximum number of Protestants and Union supporters within a six-county territory.
But Bambery pointed out that based on headcount, Catholic nationalists are now the majority in Northern Ireland.
Sinn Fein, the Irish Republican and Democratic Socialist political party has emerged on the nationalist side as the largest party overtaking the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP).
While on the union side, the Democratic Unionist Party has overtaken the official Unionists “who just can’t resist anymore.”
In last year’s elections, in the Northern Ireland Assembly, Sinn Fein emerged as the biggest party overtaking the Democratic Unionist Party.
But the Democratic Unionist Party refused to form an administration led by Sinn Fein’s Michelle O’Neill.
Under the Good Friday Agreement, the biggest party takes the first ministership but it must be agreed between the biggest nationalist party and the biggest unionist party.
“By refusing to agree to that the DUP are effectively stopping an administration being created in Belfast and most of the North of Ireland,” said Bambery.
The initial pretext for that was over the Northern Ireland protocol agreement between Britain and the EU.
The protocol ensures that a hard border is avoided on the island of Ireland following the UK’s withdrawal from the EU.
The DUP has still not made any moves toward reviewing it so “basically they are blocking Sinn Fein from taking the first ministership because they don’t want to have that.”
Good Friday Agreement must be “altered”
The Good Friday Agreement brought about peace with the IRA eventually “decommissioning and dissolving itself,” said Bambery.
“The peace process was popular because people were fed up with three decades of violence, they wanted an end to it, they wanted to return to normality, the actual political structures agreed.”
Under the agreement, parties in the Northern Ireland Assembly must identify themselves either as unionists or nationalists and by doing so they get certain privileges.
Bambery sees this as a problem because it prevents different forms of politics from emerging and it encourages “division.”
He said social and economic issues have not been fundamentally addressed by the Agreement.
But if the DUP continues to effectively veto Sinn Fein’s first ministership in Northern Ireland, the Good Friday Agreement must be “altered,” he added.
Irish unity
Despite DUP’s desperate campaigning for a leave vote, 55% of voters in Northern Ireland voted to stay in the EU.
Bambery thinks it has become a fundamental issue as the Irish Republic remained in the bloc and Northern Ireland is no longer part of it.
The possibility of a border between the Republic and Northern Ireland is not allowed under the Good Friday Agreement.
“It took a lot of cut chewing and throwing by British governments who did not behave very responsibly, particularly Boris Johnson, who was a Brexitier and was desperate to appease the DUP,” said the author. “More recently we have seen the new British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak rise to a level of diplomatic skill to make an agreement with the European Union.”
It however was not enough to satisfy the DUP, who continues to veto O’Neill becoming first minister.
Currently, the relationship between Dublin and London is very close, said Bambery, adding both governments are very anxious about Sinn Fein becoming the biggest party in the Irish Republic, as well as in Northern Ireland.
Both governments need to recognize that Sinn Fein is “a major political force, and it should be treated with respect.”
The Good Friday Agreement stipulates a referendum should be held if a majority in Northern Ireland and the republic’s parliament in Dublin support Irish unity.
“I think, really the division of Ireland into two has been a catastrophe for Ireland, for both sections of the population, the unionists and the nationalists.”
“And it has led, as I say, to this situation, well, not just three decades in trouble, but Northern Ireland as a political and economic slum inside Europe, inside the United Kingdom. So, I think there has to be change,” said Bambery.
Essentially, the best way to make that change, in his opinion, is to move toward Irish unity because “this division, the partition of Ireland is unnatural.”
There seems to have been “a shift” amongst unionist voters who are now voting for other parties such as Alliance Party, which does not identify itself as unionist or nationalist.
“There are people who are questioning those traditional tags. So, I think that opens the wave of the potential change going down the road,” said Bambery.
He pointed out that within the next decade “Ireland will be united” as a result of these major changes taking place.
